Wednesday, March 24, 2010

The US-PAK nuclear deal

US has shown its willingness to sign a nuclear deal with Pakistan,it should be quite similar to the Indo-US nuclear deal.IAEA approved India's safeguard agreement treaty.One of the main reasons India got this approval was because it has successfully managed to safeguard its nuclear secrets.Whereas in case of Pakistan we are very much aware of A.Q Khan's case.A.Q Khan had sold off nuclear weapons technology to Iran and Libya.The wealth he would have amassed through this  transaction would have made him the richest man on the planet.
Past has shown us that Pakistan has a poor history when it comes to safeguarding its nuclear secrets,despite this well known fact we are seeing the Americans willing to  sign a nuclear treaty with Pakistan.One of the main reasons for American willingness is because of the war in Afghanistan.The Obama administration plans to increase the troops deployed in Afghanistan.In such a scenario US would be needing Pakistan's help,besides it is going to be difficult to win the war on terrorism without Pakistan's help.Pakistan in the past  has expressed its displeasure over the  Indo-US nuclear deal.So this move is mainly aimed to satisfy the ruling Pakistani administration.
This deal should certainly increase the security concerns of several nations,and lets not  discount the possibility of this technology falling into the hands of the terrorists.US and Pakistan have been allies since Pakistan's independence in 1947.Similarly during the post independence period India and the Soviet Union were seen as great allies(mainly due to Nehru's  inclination towards socialism),But we had seen a dramatic change in foreign policy when the NDA government came into power.We had actually seen the Vajpayee Govt. taking the initiative for the Indo-US nuclear deal.It was during the NDA regime that we had seen the Indian Govt negotiating with the US.
Recently US ambassador rejected the possibility of US providing access to Headley,US may prevent India getting the custody of Headley since it would help India prove the involvement of Pakistan in 26/11.Giving custody of Headley to India can potentially hamper the US-PAK relation.
Coming back to the US-PAK nuclear deal,I doubt if Pakistan would receive the support of the nations in IAEA due to its poor history when it comes to safeguarding it nuclear secrets.
This is my first post on foreign policy/politics.I often get criticized for being biased towards a particular ideology,which prevented me from making posts on these topics.Please comment if you feel this post is biased.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Its all Greek and goldman

Was researching on the recent crisis in Greece.Recently people in Greece have been protesting against the government for the hikes in taxes and reduction in spendings.pay cuts have been announced for the people working in the government sector and subsidies for the farmers have been reduced substantially.These austerity measures have made the farmers and the citizens of Greece to raise their voice against their government.
What has forced the government to adhere to such strict measures?
A recent report suggests that Greece's debt to GDP ratio is set to touch 120% and next years fiscal deficit is set to touch 13%.These figures should certainly scare all investors investing in Greece.The volumes in the bond market has fallen by more than 10% and the yield spreads have risen by more than 50 basis points last week,besides Euro has been under performing most of the currencies in the last couple of months.
Lets now look at the performance of the investment Bank.....oops sorry commercial Bank Goldman Sachs.Goldman has reported a profit of 4.78b USD.The gross income is as much as the income of the 5 big US banks combined.We haven't seen any significant improvement in the US economy, in spite of this Goldman has managed to post a 5b bottom line figure,a great achievement.But looking at the recent reports of Goldman's involvement in the Greek crisis I have my doubts on how Goldman has managed to post such a high profit figure.
Recently came across a article about the deal between Goldman and Greece.The article said that in the beginning of this decade prior to the Athens Olympics,Goldman helped Greece borrow billions,what was interesting was the method used by Goldman to fund Greece.Goldman provided cash upfront,but it was not reported as it was treated as a currency swap.Greece in return would have to forgo some of its future earnings.
Hmmm....now I wonder how much of this revenue has managed to find its way into Goldman's profits.In the past we have several countries seeking support from IMF, isn't it possible these countries would have approached Goldman prior to approaching IMF,isn't it possible that Goldman would have bailed out many such countries using such unethical practices.It may be unethical but unfortunately its not illegal,so we cant say for sure unless these countries voluntarily inform us about such transactions. Until then these government would continue to cheat its citizens and Goldman's profits should continue to move up.